COVID-19 and Yankee Candles

Fascinating chart.

Blue line: Daily COVID-19 cases in the United States from April through November 2021

Red line: Reviews of Yankee Candles on Amazon saying “they don’t have any scent” from that same time period.

Turns out there is a strong correlation between COVID-19 infection and Americans’ inability to smell the scents of Yankee Candles.

It’s difficult to tell if this is a predictive or lagging indicator, but it certainly makes sense and can rightly be added to some of the more interesting  and unexpected indicators in the world today, including:

The Hemline Index: Coined a few years before the Great Depression, the hemline index follows a simple logic – the higher women’s hemlines go, the healthier the economy. There is debate by economists over whether this is a predictive or lagging indicator, but either way, it’s real.

The Lipstick Index: Conversely, the lipstick index seems to predict downturns in the economy. Coined by Leonard Lauder, chairman of the board of Estee Lauder, the lipstick index was used to describe increased sales of cosmetics during the early 2000s recession. The speculation was that women substitute lipstick for more expensive purchases like dresses and shoes in times of economic distress.

The Champagne Index: Sales of champagne are a clear, consistent, and reliable indicator of how the economy is performing, and is presumably based upon the amount of  discretionary income that Americans have and their inclination to feel celebratory. Sales of cardboard boxes can serve as a similar, though slightly less reliable, indicator.

And my favorite index of all time:

The Waffle House Index: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) measures the severity of storm damage by (no joke) what the local Waffle House is serving on its menu. If the local Waffle House is serving a full menu, the community is considered to be in the green and doing well. If the restaurant has lost power but is still open and serving a limited, grill-only menu, it’s in the yellow and likely in need of some assistance. Red means the restaurant is closed, which is a “really bad” sign, according to former FEMA chief Craig Fugate.